On Wednesday, Nvidia delivered another impressive earnings report, surpassing Wall Street's expectations yet again. Despite this, the markets have become accustomed to the company's remarkable performance over the past two years, and now, only exceptional results seem to satisfy investors' appetites.
The artificial intelligence (AI) chip manufacturer, which has been a key driver in the market's robust rally this year, announced sales exceeding $30 billion for its fiscal second quarter. This represents a staggering 122% increase from the corresponding period in the previous year and surpassed the $28.7 billion that financial analysts had anticipated. Moreover, the company's profits for the quarter more than doubled, reaching $16.6 billion, which was higher than the projected $15 billion.
Nvidia also provided slightly better-than-expected sales forecasts for the upcoming quarter, which could be interpreted as a positive signal for investors. However, this was not enough to prevent a dip in the company's share price, which fell by as much as 5% during after-hours trading following the earnings announcement.
The company's unparalleled AI processors have been instrumental in the surge of AI technologies across the tech industry and have sparked a fervor for AI investments on Wall Street. Nvidia's stock has skyrocketed by an astounding 154% this year and has seen a meteoric rise of over 3,000% in the past five years, fueled by the AI boom. As a result, Nvidia's market capitalization has ballooned to over $3 trillion, joining an exclusive group of only three US companies to ever reach this valuation.
Nevertheless, concerns are mounting regarding the sustainability of the AI hype. This is largely due to lingering doubts about the timeline and the extent to which AI technology will translate into tangible profits for tech conglomerates.
Furthermore, the reality is that no company can maintain such a breakneck pace of growth indefinitely. While Nvidia managed to exceed Wall Street's expectations for both revenue and profit margins, investors seemed let down that the margin of victory was not more substantial. Additionally, speculation about potential delays in the release of the company's latest AI chips, known as Blackwell, has added to the pre-earnings jitters. However, during the earnings call on Wednesday evening, executives reassured that Nvidia is still on track to generate revenue from Blackwell within the current fiscal year.
"Although the figures confirm the ongoing vitality of the AI revolution, the narrower margin of victory compared to previous quarters adds to the cautionary signs in the tech sector during this earnings season," commented Thomas Monteiro, a senior analyst at Investing.com, in an email.
In an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang stated that the demand for Blackwell "vastly outstrips supply," but assured that "we will have ample supply and will be scaling up from Q4 onwards."
The performance of Nvidia's stock has far-reaching implications for the broader market, given its significant weight of approximately 7% in the S&P 500 index.
The Bespoke Investment Group noted in a report on Wednesday, "Nvidia's earnings report has become the most critical financial news event globally."
Despite the wariness exhibited by investors, there are no signs of a slowdown for the chipmaker. Nvidia's data center business remains the primary catalyst for its success, indicating that the demand for AI infrastructure in the tech sector remains robust. The company garnered nearly $26.3 billion in data center sales, accounting for 87% of its total revenue.
"Nvidia continues to capitalize on a market paradox: the aggressive AI investment strategies of Big Tech companies drive substantial demand for Nvidia's chips, even as these same companies are investing in the development of their own silicon," said Jacob Bourne, a technology analyst at Emarketer, in a statement.
Indeed, the titans of Silicon Valley are continuing to expand their investments in AI infrastructure, much of which is directed towards purchasing chips from Nvidia. In their recent earnings reports, Google, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms all indicated an intention to increase their spending on AI.
Meta projected its full-year capital expenditures to range between $37 billion and $40 billion, raising the lower end of its guidance by $2 billion from the previous quarter. Microsoft forecasted spending to exceed its $56 billion in capital expenditures from 2024 in the fiscal year 2025. Google anticipated capital expenditure spending to be "at or above" $12 billion per quarter for the current year. (For context, Google's second quarter capital expenditures represented about 17% of its total sales, which is a substantial figure even for extremely wealthy companies.)
Despite apprehensions about potential Blackwell delays, Third Bridge, a research firm, estimates that 60-70% of AI model training at so-called hyperscale companies like Microsoft and Google will utilize the new Nvidia chips by the end of next year, according to analyst Lucas Keh.
During the analyst call following the earnings report on Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang defended the company's prospects, reminding participants that Nvidia's chips are not only used in AI chatbots but also in ad targeting systems, search engines, robotics, and recommendation algorithms, such as those that power social media feeds.
"People investing in Nvidia's infrastructure are seeing immediate returns," Huang stated, adding that the company's more powerful chips process data more efficiently, thereby saving clients money. "In the future, every single data center will be equipped with GPUs," the type of chip that Nvidia has become renowned for, Huang predicted.
Collectively, these factors suggest that even if the fervor surrounding Nvidia's stock were to subside, the company's fundamentals are expected to remain robust for the foreseeable future.
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